经济学人:IPCC发布全球升温报告 各国要积极应对气候变暖(01)

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Climate change

气候变化

The temperature rises

温度上升

A new report produces a mixture of alarm and apathy

新报告敲响警钟,对此有人惊慌,有人冷漠

For decades scientists have warned that rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels

几十年来,燃烧化石燃料导致温室气体浓度不断上升,

risk adversely affecting the climate, increasing ocean acidity, the frequency of freak weather and other symptoms of planetary ill-health.

科学家一直都在警告这将恶化气候、增加海洋酸度、增高天气反常频率,并会导致其他地球不健康的症状表现。

But it seemed that keeping the temperature within 2°C of pre-industrial levels, although disruptive, would probably leave Earth in a chronic but stable condition.

但是如果温度浮动相比工业化前不超过2°C,尽管有一定破坏性,但是可能会使地球处于一种慢性恶化但是稳定的状态。

A report unveiled this week from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN-backed body that musters the science needed to inform policy, shows how optimistic that was.

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)是由联合国支持的组织,主要任务是为政策制定提供科学信息。本周,委员会公布了一份报告,报告表明这样的想法过于乐观。

The survey was commissioned in 2015 by the then 195 signatories of the Paris climate agreement—

这项调查是2015年由当时195个巴黎气候协议签署国委托进行的——

which commits them to keep warming "well below" 2°C and to "pursue efforts towards 1.5°C".

规定协定国要将气候升温“最好”控制在2°C以下,且“力求1.5°C”。

The effects and technical feasibility of keeping warming within this tighter limit were the report's focus.

报告重点是在这个更严格的限度内保持气候变暖的影响和技术可行性。

How it was put together, the message it contains and the reaction it elicited all matter.

报告的组合方式、内容信息以及影响都很重要。

First, the way it was assembled.

首先是组合方式。

Although the report presents no new science of its own, its survey of more than 6,000 studies is meticulous.

尽管这份报告本身并没有什么新科学,但它对6000多项研究的调查却十分细致。

With every passing year scientists amass more data about how the climate has already changed.

随着时间的流逝,科学家们积累了更多关于气候变化的数据。

And, as many people battered in Florida this week by Hurricane Michael will attest, it is changing faster than anyone foresaw even two decades ago.

而且,本周在佛罗里达遭受飓风“迈克尔”袭击的人将会亲身体验,气候变化速度甚至比20年前任何人预想的都要快。

This new knowledge, together with improved understanding of the complex climate system, makes projections like those the IPCC has compiled more compelling.

这种新认知,加上对复杂气候系统的更好理解,使得政府间气候变化专门委员会的预测很有说服力。

Uncertainties remain;

但不确定性仍然存在;

individual research contained within the report may yet be challenged.

报告中包含的个人研究可能会受到挑战。

But in study after study, page after page, fact after fact, the evidence for anthropogenic climate change, long clear, is harder than ever to ignore.

但在大量研究中得出的人类活动导致气候变化的证据,显而易见再难忽视。

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